The end of Moore’s Law has long been predicted, but according to Zvi Or-Bach of Monolithic 3D, it is already here. “Most of these predictions have been targeting the 7nm node and 2020 as the end-point. But we need to recognize that, in fact, 28nm is actually the last node of Moore’s Law,” he said in an EETimes blog. The limits on Moore’s Law scaling are not simply technical; the key is economics. A foundry may have the technology to squeeze more transistors onto a chip, but if the cost rises too quickly, it will fail to meet the standard of this “law.” Or-Bach notes that “we can continue to make smaller transistors and pack more of them into the same size die, but we cannot continue to reduce the cost. In most cases, in fact, the same [system-on-a-chip] will actually have a higher cost!”
Moore’s Law has had an incredible run, with the abundance of computing power transforming many industries. But with an overreliance on information as a source of economic growth and the lingering questions of privacy and freedom in the wake of these changes, society could use a respite from the flood of technological advancement. As new silicon developments become increasingly difficult to attain, the world may just get the opportunity to ask itself what it should do with all the capabilities it already has.
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